CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN THE IHOROMBE

Lahimasy Vone*, Hanitriniaina Elys Karena, Rabotovao David Sebas, Razafindrazanakolona Andrianjafimanjato Daniel, Baovola Ratalata, Rasamoelina Henri, Fatiany Pierre Ruphin

The study conducted in the Ihorombe region focuses on air temperature, rainfall, and humidity in order to identify possible changes in these climatic parameters and to assess the impact of climate phenomena on agricultural production (Gurib-Fakim, 2006; Burney, 1992). The analysis considers rain-fed crops, namely rice, maize, cassava, sweet potato, groundnut, and sugarcane, which are highly dependent on rainfall (Burney, 1992). The research methodology is based on data collection and field surveys. For the analysis of climatic parameters, two analytical approaches were applied: the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM), which allowed the identification of anomalies within the climatic time series (Ghil et al., 2002). The results show unusual anomalies in temperature and rainfall, while air humidity was regular during the period 1989–2004. These anomalies suggest the beginning of climate change in the Ihorombe region. The annual rainfall shows a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2004. Agricultural data analysis shows variations in crop yields depending on the type of crop. Rice, maize, cassava, and sugarcane exhibit increasing yields, whereas sweet potato production shows a decline despite an expansion in cultivated area. This indicates a higher sensitivity of sweet potato to climate change compared to the other crops studied. The Ihorombe region is currently affected by climate change. However, the impact of climate change on agriculture is not the same for all crops. This situation requires the implementation of adaptation strategies so that agriculture, which is a major source of food, is not negatively affected by the possible effects of climate change.